Uncertainties About Climate

Research papers from CDMC investigators that explore uncertainty in various aspects of climate science include:

"Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing," - M. Granger Morgan, Peter Adams, and David W. Keith, Climatic Change, 75, 195-214, 2006.

"Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," - M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001.

"Expert Judgments About Transient Climate Response to Alternative Future Trajectories of Radiative Forcing," - Kirsten Zickfeld, M. Granger Morgan, David Frame, David W. Keith, in review.

"Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," - Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007.

"Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," - M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468A-476A, October 1995.

Uncertainties in Technology for Mitigation

Example of work by center investigators to quantitatively describe uncertainty associated with low-carbon energy technologies include:

"Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Residential Sector: An engineering and economic assessment of opportunities for large energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions" - I.L. Azevedo, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 2009 (Ph.D). [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Evaluation of Potential Cost Reductions from Improved Amine-based CO2 Capture Systems," - Anand B. Rao, Edward S. Rubin, David W. Keith, and M. Granger Morgan, Energy Policy, 34, 3765-3772, 2006

"Expert Assessments of Future Photovoltaic Technologies" - A.E. Curtright, M.G. Morgan, D.W. Keith, Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 4, No. 24, 2008, 9031-9038. [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Greenhouse Gas Implications of Using Coal for Transportation: Life cycle assessment of coal-to-liquids, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen pathways" - P. Jaramillo, C. Samaras, H. Wakeley, K. Meisterling, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 7, 2009, 2689-2695. [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Impact of Battery Weight and Charging Patterns on the Economic and Environmental Benefits of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles" - C.S. Shiau, C. Samaras, R. Hauffe, J.J. Michalek, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 7, 2009, 2653-2663. [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Learning from Wind: A Framework for Effective Low-Carbon Energy Diffusion" - C. Samaras, August 19-25 2006; Elsevier; World Renewable Energy Congress, Florence, Italy. [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: Implications for policy" - C. Samaras, K. Meisterling, Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 42, No. 9, 2008, 3170-3176. [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]

"Technical Change and Public Policies Affecting Wind Power's Past, Present, and Future" - C. Samaras, June 4-7 2006; Windpower 2006, American Wind Energy Association, Pittsburgh, PA. [ BibTeX | XML ]

"The Transition to Solid-State Lighting" - I.L. Azevedo, M.G. Morgan, F. Morgan, Proceedings of the IEEE, March 2009, 481-510 (ISSN: 0018-9219). [ BibTeX | XML | Full paper ]



Climate Decision Making Center 2009