"Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing" - M.G. Morgan, P. Adams, D.W. Keith, Climatic Change, Vol. 75, 2006, 195-214.
http://cdmc.epp.cmu.edu/docs/priv/122_Morgan_Elicitation_Aerosolforcing.pdf
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Climate Decision Making Center 2009